President Trump Undertakes High-Stakes Middle East Trip

President Donald Trump is scheduled for a high-stakes diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from May 13-16, 2025. As his first major foreign trip since returning to office, this tour underscores the strategic importance of the Gulf region to his administration, driven by economic goals, security partnerships, and the need to navigate regional crises. The exclusion of Israel from the itinerary signals a strategic prioritisation of Gulf relations at this time.

A primary objective of the trip aligns with the “America First” doctrine: securing significant economic achievements. The administration seeks multi-billion-dollar investment commitments from the wealthy Gulf monarchies to bolster the U.S. economy. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that Trump aims to usher in a “golden age” of U.S.-Gulf relations founded on commerce and “peace through strength.”

Geopolitical Context

President Trump’s visit occurs amidst significant regional flux. The ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict remains a critical flashpoint; Israeli officials have linked a May 15 hostage deal deadline—coinciding with Trump’s trip—to a potential major military operation, dubbed “Gideon Chariots,” which intensifies regional stability concerns.

Parallel to the Gaza crisis, indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman, concluded their fourth round on May 11, 2025. While progress has been reported, Iran’s uranium enrichment remains a contentious issue. Trump’s preferred “maximum pressure” strategy, which combines sanctions with military threats, sharply contrasts with the Gulf states’ recent shift toward cautious diplomacy over confrontation. Regional leaders will likely urge Trump to prioritise stability during these sensitive talks. The evolving influence of Gulf states as economic and diplomatic hubs continues to shape this complex environment.

Trump’s Gulf Outreach

The visit’s structure, engaging the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) collectively before meeting with key states individually, reinforces the traditional U.S. “hub-and-spoke” approach to regional security and diplomacy. This positions Washington as the central external partner, allowing for tailored bilateral influence while fostering collective security under its purview.

Discussions with the GCC are expected to address regional security architecture, economic cooperation, and coordinated responses to shared challenges, particularly the impact of Iranian influence and instability. During this summit, Trump is reportedly anticipated to make a symbolically significant announcement: the United States will officially recognise the term “Arabian Gulf” in government communications, shifting from the historical use of “Persian Gulf.”

Likely Outcomes of the Visit

President Trump’s trip is expected to yield tangible outcomes, particularly major economic agreements and defence deals, reflecting his administration’s focus on transactional diplomacy.

Economic Agreements:

The Gulf’s substantial sovereign wealth funds and interest in U.S. technology and infrastructure are central to the economic discussions.

Saudi Arabia: Building on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s previous pledge of $600 billion in investments to U.S. industries, discussions aim to potentially expand this commitment towards $1 trillion, targeting U.S. energy, manufacturing, and AI ventures. A Saudi-U.S. investment forum, scheduled for May 13, will feature joint ventures, including a rare earth mining partnership between Saudi Ma’aden and U.S.-based MP Materials. This partnership supports Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goal of expanding its mining sector, which encompasses gold, phosphate, bauxite, and rare earths. The Kingdom also seeks U.S. support for developing its civilian nuclear energy program, another key element of its Vision 2030 diversification plan.

United Arab Emirates: The UAE has committed to a $1.4 trillion investment package over the next ten years, focusing on the U.S. semiconductor, AI, and renewable energy sectors. Trump may announce the easing of export restrictions on advanced technologies, such as microchips and artificial intelligence (AI), thereby bolstering the UAE’s ambition to become a regional leader in AI. Notably, the UAE is reportedly planning a $2 billion investment in one of President Trump’s cryptocurrency initiatives. The UAE’s active pursuit of critical minerals through investments in Africa (e.g., DRC, Zambia) makes this sector a likely topic of discussion, given its strategic importance.

Qatar: Qatar Airways is reportedly finalising a multi-billion-dollar order for approximately 100 Boeing wide-body aircraft, with options for 100 more. This deal underscores the U.S.-Qatar partnership, reinforced by the U.S. presence at Al Udeid Air Base, and aligns with Trump’s goal of boosting American jobs. Alongside such major deals, Doha seeks reaffirmation of its Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) status, continued U.S. military presence, and political support in Washington, emphasising its role as a regional mediator amid some U.S. Congressional criticism.

Defence Cooperation:

Significant arms sales are anticipated across the visited nations, continuing the administration’s emphasis on defence deals as a foreign policy tool.

Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom is positioned to secure the largest package, potentially exceeding $100 billion. This includes C-130 aircraft, radar systems, and missiles, highlighted by a recently approved $3.5 billion sale of 1,000 AMRAAM missiles (currently under congressional review). Major U.S. defence contractors, including Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Boeing, are involved.

Qatar: Arms purchases are expected to be more modest but could include a significant deal worth nearly $2 billion for eight armed MQ-9B Reaper drones.

UAE: The UAE, already a major buyer, is likely to pursue deals based on those approved during Trump’s first term. It continues to implement a $23 billion arms package secured in 2020, focusing on advanced missiles, air defence, drones, and cybersecurity.

Notably, sales of the F-35 fighter jet are not expected for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during this visit. The UAE’s previous F-35 deal remains suspended, and approval for Saudi Arabia is considered improbable due to U.S. policy constraints and Israeli objections.

Regional Peace Efforts:

While uncertain, the visit’s impact on peace initiatives could be highly consequential.

Gaza Conflict: On the urgent Gaza front, President Trump may pressure Qatar, leveraging its ties with Hamas, to broker a hostage deal or partial ceasefire, amplified by Israeli deadlines. He might also propose a U.S.-backed framework for Gaza’s future governance to revive negotiations, although a comprehensive resolution faces significant hurdles.

Iran Nuclear Talks: Regarding Iran, Gulf leaders are expected to urge Trump to support the ongoing nuclear negotiations over potential military action, given their concerns about regional fallout from any escalation.

Yemen Ceasefire: A significant recent development is the May 6, 2025, ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, mediated by Oman. This reportedly included a halt to the U.S. air campaign against Houthi targets and a Houthi commitment to cease targeting U.S. shipping—a major policy shift welcomed regionally. Despite this de-escalation, ensuring maritime security in the Red Sea remains a priority, and discussions on calibrated responses to threats may still occur.

Syrian Stabilisation: Looking at the longer term, Syria’s potential post-Assad reintegration offers opportunities. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, having pledged reconstruction aid, may seek U.S. sanction relief to help stabilise Syria and curb Iranian influence there. Success could enhance Gulf-U.S. collaboration, but it might also alienate other actors.

Expanding Abraham Accords: Expanding the Abraham Accords, particularly achieving Saudi-Israeli normalisation—a Trump priority—remains stalled as Riyadh continues to demand substantial progress on Palestinian statehood. This condition is currently unpalatable for the Israeli government.

Ukraine Mediation Role: President Trump views certain Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, with its history of hosting U.S.-Russia backchannels, as potentially useful conduits to Moscow. He may aim to leverage these diplomatic channels to facilitate an end to the conflict in Ukraine, aligning with his campaign promises.

Gulf’s Strategic Balancing: Underlying many discussions is the Gulf states’ strategy of diversifying international partnerships, balancing traditional U.S. ties with growing relationships with China and Russia. This complicates Trump’s objectives, and he is expected to pressure these nations to distance themselves more demonstrably from Beijing.

President Trump’s forthcoming Middle East trip encapsulates his administration’s blend of economic nationalism and practical diplomacy. While high-profile deals and photo opportunities may yield immediate political benefits, the visit’s ultimate success hinges on navigating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and the evolving alliances in the Gulf.

Standing at a critical juncture, the U.S. and its regional partners could view this trip as either cementing a transactional yet stable partnership or deepening regional fractures, thereby undermining long-term security. For Trump, the Middle East appears viewed less as a chessboard for grand strategy than as a marketplace where deals, more than ideals, are prioritised to shape the future.